The Iran Nuclear Deal: What’s the US Going to Do Next?
The Trump administration’s position, aimed at mandating all United Nations members to follow its lead, is opposed by most of the world.
The Trump administration has attempted to trigger a 30-day-clock on extending an arms embargo on Iran that expires on Oct. 18. But the United States position, aimed at mandating all United Nations members to follow its lead, is opposed by most of the world.
The embargo is part of Security Council Resolution 2231, adopted in 2015, that endorsed a nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), to prevent Iran from developing an atomic bomb. The pact took two years of intensive negotiations to complete and it occurred under the Obama administration.
Despite widespread opposition, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo initiated the so-called “snapback” procedure, which is to come into force on Sept. 20, 2020, but there is little chance it will get support in the Security Council. Still, he argues that the US, due to Ambassador Samantha Power’s vote in 2015, was a participant in Resolution 2231, even though President Donald Trump in 2018 declared he “was terminating US participation.”
The “snapback” mechanism is unique and allows one of the participants to the original nuclear deal to reimpose all UN sanctions the JCPOA lifted or eased.
Among the five permanent members of the 15-seat Security Council, four oppose the US position — Russia, China, France and Britain. Among the 10 elected members, only the Dominican Republic supports Washington for now. Those against include Belgium, Estonia, Indonesia, Niger, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, South Africa, Tunisia, Vietnam and Germany, one the original participants in the JCPOA. The three European parties to the deal — Germany, Britain and France — may reaffirm their position this week that the US cannot trigger the snapback, two diplomats told PassBlue.
So what will happen on Sept. 20? Nothing official at the UN or in the prestigious Security Council, which could take binding action on all UN members. But the US can initiate secondary sanctions against any country dealing with Iran, such as firms that would supply Iran with weapons or buy its oil. With the dollar as the world’s standard currency, Washington can also take monetary action against nations violating its unilateral sanctions.
The European group in the UN Security Council has proposed a dialogue aimed at reaching a compromise that all 15 Council members can support, which so far has failed to find a unified position. They also note that the European Union has its own arms embargo against Iran, but they say the American rejection of any kind of UN-approved nuclear deal makes it nigh impossible to negotiate with Washington at this time, in the run-up to the presidential election on Nov. 3
In a joint statement, “France, Germany and the United Kingdom note that the United States ceased to participate in the JCPOA after its withdrawal from the agreement on May 8, 2018.” It added: “We therefore cannot support this action which is incompatible with our current efforts to support the JCPOA.”
“We will not make fools of ourselves,” one European diplomat told reporters.
In response, Pompeo told reporters: “No country but the United States has had the courage and conviction to put forward a resolution. Instead, they [other delegations] chose to side with the ayatollahs,” he said after formally starting the process on Aug. 20, when he presented a letter to the Security Council and to Secretary-General António Guterres, declaring that the US was triggering the snapback.
The US has heaped so many sanctions on Iran that the country has little money to buy weapons. Washington recently placed secondary sanctions on firms in China and the United Arab Emirates for buying Iranian oil. But no one knows what its proxy militia in Iran and other places might do.
Meanwhile, the International Atomic Energy Agency, in a recent report obtained by Stephanie Liechtenstein for PassBlue, said Iran’s stockpile of low-enriched uranium continues to grow and exceeds the limit set by the nuclear deal. Yet, the stockpile is still far below the amount Iran had accumulated before the JCPOA. Iran is also allowing IAEA inspectors back into two suspected nuclear sites.
While all eyes are riveted on Iran’s nuclear ability, some US and allied officials are concerned that Saudi Arabia is moving ahead with its own nascent nuclear program and may be keeping its options open on developing nuclear arms, The New York Times reported. The White House also recently has made clear it wants to sell weapons to the United Arab Emirates, including F-35 stealth fighters.
The US has found fault with numerous UN agencies and programs, and the Iran nuclear deal is no exception to Trump’s pouring scorn on actions by former President Obama. Besides the nuclear deal, Trump has withdrawn from the Paris climate accord, the World Health Organization, the UN Human Rights Council and Unesco. Recently, the administration placed an asset freeze and a family entrance ban on Fatou Bensouda, the prosecutor for the International Criminal Court, and a top aide. The US has never joined the court.
Trump may come to the UN General Assembly opening session to speak on Sept. 21, marking the UN’s 75th birthday, or the 22nd or both. For now, he may be the only world leader to show up physically for the virtual debate, given that the US told UN member states that anyone who wanted to come had to self-quarantine for 14 days upon arriving in New York City. Vladimir Putin of Russia has announced he is staying home; same for Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil.
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Originally published at https://www.passblue.com on September 16, 2020.